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EQE 681 - Earthquake Risk Assessment
COURSE NO AND TITLE : EQE 681 - Earthquake Risk Assessment
1 Introduction
- General Terminology: Definitions of seismic hazard, vulnerability, fragility, risk, loss.
- Regional scale and urban scale risk assessments
2 Hazard Assessment and Characterisation of Strong Ground Motion
2.1 Probabilistic hazard assessment
Time-independent and –dependent
Hazard de-aggregation
2.2 Deterministic hazard assessment
Scenario-based
2.3 Ground motion intensity measures (IMs)
Macro seismic intensity: MMI, EMS-98 etc.
Instrumental intensity: PGA, PGV, Sa, Sd etc.
Different IMs for different physical elements at risk
2.4 Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs)
Attributes, uncertainties
Inter- and intra-earthquake variability
2.5 Ground Shaking Maps
Site characterization
Spatial distribution of ground shaking intensity
3 Elements at Risk
3.1 Physical elements
Buildings, lifeline networks (electricity, water and waste-water, gas and oil, telecommunication), transportation infrastructures (bridges, road network), essential facilities (schools, hospitals, etc), industrial elements and historical heritage
3.2 Social elements
Demographic data and associated socio-economic indicators for vulnerability assessment
3.3 Taxonomy definitions
Classification of physical elements at risk on the basis of pre-defined typologies
3.4 Compilation of inventories
Ground surveys, remote sensing techniques, census and owner/operator data, and crowd sourcing.
4 Physical and Socio-Economic Risk Assessment
- Correlation of ground motion parameters with damage to built environment
4.1 Direct approach
Seismological method, given epicentre and magnitude of the event, estimation of casualties
Case applications
4.2 Regional scale
Intensity-based engineering method, estimation of damages and casualties
Case applications
4.3 Urban scale
Analytical method, spectral capacity-based vulnerability assessment, estimation of damage, casualties and direct economic losses
Case applications
5 Fully Probabilistic Risk Assessment
- Probability of loss exceedance
PREREQUISITES : -
DURATION &HOURS PER WEEK : 3 hrs per week / 3+0+0
LEVEL: Ph.D.
TARGET AUDIENCE: Earthquake Engineering and Civil Engineering Students
GRADING BASIS : Class attendance, presentations and homework: 40%, term project: 60%.
REFERENCE TEXTBOOKS :
- Bozorgnia, Y. & Bertero, V. V. (CRC Press, 2004) Earthquake Engineering - from Engineering Seismology to Performance-Based Engineering.
- Chen, W.-F. & Scawthorn, C. (CRC Press, 2003) Earthquake Engineering Handbook.
- Assessing and Managing Earthquake Risk: Oliveira, Carlos Sousa; Roca, Antoni; Goula, Xavier (Eds.) 2006, 2006, XXV, 543 p. ISBN 978-1-4020-3524-1
- Handbook of seismic risk analysis and management of civil infrastructure systems Edited by S Tesfamariam and K Goda. ISBN 0 85709 268 5.